NYK Mistakes

Wilson Chandler...again??

2011-05-13T09:37:00.000-07:00

Finals are over and now I can get my blood pressure back to an elevated level completely induced by the Knicks offseason. The first nugget that came to my attention was that according to the NY Post, the Knicks would be interested in re-acquiring Wilson Chandler, who is a restricted free agent. Chandler was sent to Denver at the trade deadline for the savior of the franchise, Carmelo Anthony. Reading the headline I though to myself, ok, Chandler could provide some depth and is an adequate option at the small forward position.

Oh, but it wouldn't be the Knicks without the ensuing information. The Knicks would look to acquire Chandler via a sign and trade by sending none other than Landry Fields to the Nuggets.

A post today was offered by David Berri showing who the most valuable player on each team was the previous season and what that team would look like if the most productive player was replaced with an average one. http://dberri.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/allmpp2010-11.png

This is a good starting point for this possible trade. Wilson Chandler profiles to be about an average small forward, his natural position. Landry Fields was the Knicks most productive player last season and essentially the swap of players takes the Knicks from 43 win team as constituted now into a 34 win team. Of course on the other side of the coin, Carmelo and Amar'e now have a full offseason to "Co-exist together"

The Knicks of today look like a lock for the next 5-6 years to win about 41 games and get bounced in the first round every year. Along the way firing the coaches for not winning with the alleged superstars in Amar'e and Carmelo. Trading Landry Fields for Wilson Chandler essentially gurantees another lost era in Knicks history. Over the salary cap, in the lottery every year, but with no draft picks. Donnie - Please don't do it!

What does it mean?

2011-02-21T19:51:00.000-08:00

The Knicks acquired Carmelo Anthony tonight and New York is blowing up with anticipation for Wednesday's game and his debut. The question to ask is, does this make the Knicks better?

Let's look at the pieces the Knicks gave up and the players that will be coming back. Using wins produced per 48 minutes and overall wins produced we can see what we can expect from the Knicks down the stretch. (Average wp48 ~.100)

To Denver:
Wilson Chandler
Raymond Felton
Danilo Gallinari
Timofey Mozgov + Draft picks

To Knicks:
Carmelo Anthony
Chauncey Billups
Shelden Williams
Anthony Carter
Renaldo Balkman

The breakdown of performance goes as follows

Wilson Chandler (at the small forawrd position) .110 wp48 ~ 4.1 wins produced
Raymond Felton .123 wp48 ~5.3 wins produced
Danilo Gallinari .111 wp48 ~3.9 wins produced
Timofey Mozgov -.081 wp 48 ~.8 wins produced

The collection of this talent, assuming Chandler plays the small forward position instead of the power forward is a group that has amassed 14.5 wins. The group the Knicks will be getting back goes as follows

Carmelo Anthony .143 wp48 ~5.3 wins produced
Chauncey Billups .150 wp48 ~5.1 wins produced
Shelden Williams .091 wp48 ~1.4 wins produced

Renaldo Balkman and Anthony Carter do not figure to play that much and won't be included. Although in the small amounts of minutes both players were in the negative range of production. The collection of players that the Knicks get back on the year have accumulated 11.8 Wins produced. On the surface it appears that the trade has not made the Knicks any better and in fact may be a bit worse off. The key for New York though is not losing Landry Fields. Denver reportedly had the choice of either Gallinari or Fields and decided on Gallinari. Fields has priduced 10.4 wins this season and is pacing the Knicks in this department.

Chauncey Billups has made it known that he does not want to play in New York and I fear he may be shipped somewhere else for a lesser calibur player and therefore depleting the Knicks talent base even less.

The media is stunned that Carmelo is New York. I am a little less optimistic and I would even say pessimistic about it going forward.

The Knicks at the All-Star break

2011-02-18T15:31:00.001-08:00

The Knicks sit at 28-26 at the break and most "experts" had picked the Knicks to be about a .500 team. The interesting thing is that the talking heads are right for all the wrong reasons. The common opinion held was that Amar'e Stoudemire + the other guys would get New York back to respectabilty again. As it has turned out, according to the Wins Produced metric the Knicks have been taken to .500 by rookie Landry Fields + the other guys. Landry Fields has emerged as one of the biggest surprise stories of the year. Although at the Wages of Wins blog Landry Fields was projected to have a .212 Wins Produced per 48 minutes (average being .100 WP48). What may come as a surprise to most people is how close Amar'e Stoudemire has been to that .100 WP48 number. Perception in the NBA is driven entirely by scoring numbers and Stoudemire's 26.2 points per game have thrust him into the popularity contest that is the MVP award as well as starting in the all-star game.

Knicks Wins Produced at the All-Star game

The other wrinkle into the Knicks at the all-star break is the likely acquistion of Carmelo Anthony from the Denver Nuggets. Anthony has been described as the best pure scorer in the league, a top-10 player in the league, a top 5 player in the league. This is not surprising given that Carmelo Anthony scores a lot of points, the other aspects of his game are swept under the rug. Carmelo at the break has a WP48 of .143, fairly consistent with his career norms. Would this improve the Knicks?

It appears the Denver front office is not interested in acquiring Landry Fields because his numbers are "inflated" from playing in D'Antoni's system. On a side note, it seems that a GM of would realize that a rate basis is more important than a sheer number. But I digress, the latest rumor has NY shipping out Wilson Chandler, Gallo, a first round pick and the corpse of Eddy Curry for the "best pure scorer" in the league.

How does this effect the team?

Wilson Chandler + Gallo have been responsible for 5.0 wins this season for the Knicks. Carmelo Anthony has produced 5.3 wins for Denver. It appears the net would not be that great either way, except the Knicks would lose the financial flexibility to add future players given Carmelo and Amare's contract situation. Should Landry Fields + Wilson Chandler be included in the deal the Knicks would be set to ship off 11.5 wins produced for the 5.3 of Carmelo Anthony, or a -6.2 return. Of course this would be a disaster, but it would be blamed on a lack of team chemistry or the coach not focusing on defense!!

It would be the first major clash of analytics versus popular notion. The Knicks would employ two thought of superstars in the league, but the stats tell us that these two players are average to above average. In addition if Landry Fields was included in the deal there would be no hidden value guys to make Carmelo or Amar'e look better by inflating win totals under the radar.

It should be very interesting to see what happens.

NYK at the halfway point

2011-01-21T14:43:00.000-08:00

Through the seasons first 41 games the Knicks stand with a record of 22-19 and hold the #6 seed in the Eastern Conference. This is obviously quite a turnaround from a team that has not had a winning record in a decade. The popular notion that most of the reason for the comeback fo the Knicks is that the arrival of Amar'e Stoudemire has propelled this team from the doldrums to at least being competitive. Looking at Wins Produced, the numbers tell a different story. Currently Amar'e has produced 3.2 wins for the Knicks and on a per 48 minute basis produced .102 wins per 48 minutes. The average NBA player will produce .100 wins per 48 (WP48). A little caveat is that Stoudemire has played 75% of his minutes at the center position instead of his normal power forward spot. Although I have no idea why a 6'10 player with incredible strength and speed can't play at the center position.

Who should we credit for the turnaround for the Knicks? According to the numbers by Andres Alvarez Landry Fields currently leads the Knicks in wins produced with 7.9 and following him is Raymond Felton with 4.5 wins. Both players have started every game for the team this year. This is quite a different backcourt than the Knicks featured last year which was comprised of Chris Duhon, Sergio Rodriguez, Larry Hughes, and Tracy McGrady, all of whom were below average performes. Another bright spot has been the improved play of Wilson Chandler, despite playing out of position at the power forward spot his WP48 stands at .062, if he was playing his normal guard/forward, Wilson would be a very much above average performer. The addition of Shawne Williams has helped, and even though he will not continue to shoot 50% from three point land, he should be a productive player. Here is a rundown of every Knick player and their contribution to the cause this season:

Knicks through 41 games

In a separate story with the Nets pulling out of the Carmelo Anthony sweepstakes (which means they will end up acquiring him) the Knicks have turned up as the front runner to attain him. The New York Post is reporting that the Knicks will be prepared to offer Landry Fields, Danilo Galinari, Bill Walker, the Corpse of Eddy Curry, and a first round pick attained for the center piece in the David Lee trade: Anthony Randolph.

The sum of the trade is the Knicks giving up three players 23 and under, cap space, and draft picks for Carmelo Anthony who is past his peak year of age 24-25. Would this be a wise trade?

Caremlo for the Nuggets has netted 3.5 wins this season and a WP48 of .141. Assuming this trade goes through and every player involved stays at the current level of production the swap would be sending 11 wins to Denver between Landry Fields, Gallo, and Bill Walker and the Knicks would acquire 3.5 Wins. The net result being the Knicks would be expected to perform 7.5 wins worse over the course of the next 41 games by completing the trade.

Hollinger hates Landry Fields

2011-01-06T11:06:00.000-08:00

I was browsing Hollinger's Player Efficency Ratings today and noticed that our man Landry Fields rates below average in his system. It is interesting that Hollinger calls his system the Player Efficency Rating or (PER) as it is more commonly known as because it really has nothing to do with being efficent. As has been chronicled in the past by the Wages of Wins, the PER has no penalty with respects to shooting efficency which is the primary driving force behind Wins Produced per 48 minutes (WP48). Although this should not be surprising since the PER is heavily driven by scoring totals, which is why Landry Fields can be rated as a below average player in this system.

PER average player - 15
Landry Fields- 14.67

WP48 average player- .100
Landry Fields- .296

What does it say about our country

2010-12-25T00:43:00.000-08:00

Tom Haberstoh wrote an article about who is "clutcher" LeBron James or Kobe Bryant. Of course there is great debate to whether a player can raise their game in clutch situations or not and the general consensus is that if this ability does exist, it only is able to raise performance by the tiniest of margins. So, to educated readers, it should come to no surprise that LeBron is more clutch than Kobe, by virtue of being a better - a much better player. Tom Haberstoh agrees

What I find interesting is the comments section of the ESPN page. Despite the evidence that Haberstoh presents, the public doesn't buy it. Here are some of the comments:

"Anyone who claims Lebron is better clearly has not watched these two players play in a meaningful game in the last 5 minuets with the game on the line. There's a reason almost everyone in the NBA will claim Kobe as the best closer of all time."

"statistics for people who don't know what they talking about. Any idiot who use stats as the cruch of his argument is a fool in any walk of life"

"Why do they even do these Kobe/LeBron comparisons. LeBron isn't on Kobe's level. Kobe's always been clutch and has been the ultimate closer. He's still the best"

"Kobe brings to the table much more than numbers. the intangibles and his refuse to lose that makes Kobe the best player in the NBA for the past 6 years."

"The article glaringly forgets to mention that Kobe has been Mr. Clutch in games that actually MEAN something...like the NBA finals. How many clutch shots does Lebron have in the Finals? ZERO because he's never been there."

So I ask the question, what does it say about the American people that despite looking in black and white at who has performed better - they just dismiss it? I don't particularly understand why supporters of Kobe are so obsessed with claiming him as better than LeBron. You never hear LeBron fans casually throw Kobe into the discussion as not being as good as LeBron, but the oppostie side does. Reading the comments on ESPN just serves as a reminder as why people like Sarah Palin, the Tea Party, and Rand Paul can be forces in American politics, because of the inability of people to look at facts and analyze and synthesize information.

Merry Christmas!

Why scouts are unreliable

2010-12-01T16:04:00.001-08:00

Subject A. Timofey Mozgov.

How many times does he get a pass thrown to him in a position to score and he just bumbles it out of bounds? Literally incredible how many. Throughout training camp and the prelude to the season, all I heard was how great the Russian was going to be. So far in 223 minutes he has produced -.9 wins for the Knicks. The reason for this terrible number is just simply - Mozgov does nothing well on the basketball court...nothing.

Amar'e Stoudemire remembered he was Amar'e Stoudemire and is now an above average player! WP48 of .106 (average of .100) Yay Amar'e! He is bringing the pow as of late.

The Knicks currently sit at 10-9, and the summation of wins produced puts them at 9.7, right in line with the 10 wins. That number should go up if D'Antoni would play Landry Fields more often and send Mozgov to Siberia.

Kobe a top 10 all time player?

2010-11-27T13:05:00.000-08:00

Is the question that Scoop Jackson poses. I don't know how he got in contact with all the people that he asked, but the majority opinion was YES. Obviously, I disagree. When describing why Kobe should be a top 10 all time player, the number one response was "5 titles." All I have to say to that is, "Shaq, a down period, and then Gasol."

I thought a better question would be since 2001, the first year that the Wins Produced metric has been out, has Kobe been a top 10 player in any given year since 2001?

2001- 9.8 Wins Produced (#34)
2002- 12.6 Wins Produced (#18)
2003- 18.4 Wins Produced (#7)
2004- 11.8 Wins Produced (#19)
2005- 10.0 Wins Produced (#33)
2006- 13.5 Wins Produced (#20)
2007- 15.3 Wins Produced (#13)
2008- 17.2 Wins Produced (#7)
2009- 14.5 Wins Produced (#12)
2010- 10.3 Wins Produced (#29)

Since 2001, Kobe has never finished higher than the 7th most valuable player in the league. His average placement in terms of value has been the 19th most valuable in the league. So what we have here is a player that has been one of the better players over the past 10 seasons but has not been an elite player in the NBA. Yet, despite this information people still assume that Kobe has been a top 10 player of all time.

The reasons for this probably have to do with the popularity of his team. The media market in Los Angeles. And that he has been fortunate enough to play with great teams his entire career, except for a 3 year period when Shaq was gone and before the great Kwame Brown was traded for Pau Gasol.

It Happened

2010-11-18T09:27:00.000-08:00

Late last night, Amar'e Stoudemire became a productive player. After 12 games, he has finally pushed his way into positive territory via Wins Produced and WP48. Right now he has produced .2 wins to the cause.

Landry Fields continues to be a force, in fact he has been by far the best rookie. Not bad for someone who didn't make Chad Ford's top 100 prospects. So far he has produced 2.3 Wins, the next closest rookie is Blake Griffin with 1.0 wins. It looks like Landry Fields could be a keeper for years to come...or until he gets traded for Carmelo Anthony.

The Knicks desperately need to move Wilson Chandler out of the '4' spot. Currently he is playing 74% of his minutes there, accorind the automated wins produced via Andres Alvarez. Either the Knicks need to acquire a power forward, or play him minutes when Amar'e and Ronny Turiaf are on the floor. The reason for this needed change is that Wilson is not particularly efficent with his shooting and he is not a good enough rebounder to sustain much value playing at the power forward spot.

How good were Houston and Sprewell?

2010-11-17T13:28:00.000-08:00

These two were considered the catalysts for the Knicks in their late 90s run. Yet these two were still on the team during the beginning of the demise in the early 2000s. The Wins Produced numbers only go back to 2001 as of now, but lets look at these two and see what they were able to accomplish. Reminder: Average WP48 is .100

2001:
Allan Houston
.075 WP48
4.5 Wins Produced
2858 Minutes

Latrell Sprewell
.064 WP48
4.0 Wins Produced
3017 Minutes

Houston and Sprewell (8.5 Wins) Rest of Team (39 Wins)

In 2001 Sprewell and Houston were both below avergae performers but were able to contribute 8.5 wins because of the large number of minutes that they played. This story follows a similar pattern.

2002:
Allan Houston
.011 WP48
.7 Wins Produced
2914 Minutes

Latrell Sprewell
-.012 WP48
-.8 Wins Produced
3326 Minutes

Houston and Sprewell (-.1 Wins) Rest of Team (30.4 Wins)

In 2002 the all-star combo produced -.1 Wins. Yes, they actually were a negative on the Knicks season. It should be noted that the rest of the team performed remarkably similar to the previous year. The only difference being Marcus Camby only produced 4.4 Wins as opposed to the 16.9 that he did in 2001, he only played in 29 games in 2002.

2003:
Allan Houston
.042 WP48
2.7 Wins Produced
3108 Minutes

Latrell Sprewell
.052 WP48
3.1 Wins Produced
2859 Minutes

Houston and Sprewell (4.8 Wins Produced) Rest of Team (31.3 Wins Produced)

Again the team performed fairly similar to the way they had performed in the past, except this year Marcus Camby was no longer with the team and the subsequent performace dropped. This is a continual pattern of the Knicks having a fairly decent team around the alleged two superstarts, if these two were actual superstars, then the Knicks would have been a juggernaut. Unfortunately, these two were not very good players.

The reason that the there is a difference in perception and reality regarding these two is that both of them could score the ball. Unfortunately, that is all they could do as neither of them were very good rebounders, they both turned the ball over and neither created a lot of turnover via steals. However, since player performace is driven by points per game and nothing else, these two were thought of as great players. The numbers tell a different story and offer an explanation as to why the Knicks could never get over the hump, the team around Sprewell and Houston was a pretty decent one. Unfortunately the big two were not very big at all.

Knicks using advanced metrics

2010-11-17T12:08:00.000-08:00

The Knicks actually use advanced metrics

It seems to me that they use them more for player tendencies rather than evaluation.

Reviewing the DLee trade

2010-11-15T16:14:00.000-08:00

Knicks send David Lee to the Golden State Warriors for Kelenna Azubuike, Ronny Turiaf, Anthony Randolph.

After 10 games this season, it is not surprising that all the of the players that the Knicks received back have been injured at some point this season. Not surprising since all the players the Knicks acquired have had injury problems in the past.

Ronny Turiaf in 2011 has posted a solid .145 WP48 and produced .5 wins. That is probably higher than what to expect considering he has never posted a WP48 over .073 in his career.

Azubuike hasn't played yet and this comes after only playing in 9 games last season.

Anthony Randolph has been particularly horrible this year and D'Antoni seems reluctant to let him play so far, playing only 12 minutes per game. For the supposed centerpiece of this deal, he has played to the tune of -.025 WP48. He is only 22, so there is hope for a turnaround, but a player that is 22 and producing in the negative range after missing 50 games last season is not something to look favorably on.

In a separate note, the Knicks rid themselves of David Lee to acquire Amar'e Stoudemire. While I don't fault them for doing this, they needed to have the perception of upgrade. Even though WoW readers know that David Lee is the better player, the popular opinion is that Amar'e is superior.

Well so far Amar'e has produced -.1 wins on the year.

Summary: Knicks acquire Amar'e Stoudemire, Ronny Turiaf, Kelenna Azubuike, Anthony Randolph ( Total Wins Produced .4)

For David Lee (Total Wins Produced 1.1)

Looks like another NYK Mistake!

Are we encouraged or discouraged?

2010-11-11T08:22:00.000-08:00

Through the first 8 games the Knicks sit at 3-5. This should not be that much of a surprise considering the most optimistic of predictions had the Knicks at 41-41 and the early schedule has featured several good teams.

The WoW wins produced statistic has the Knicks producing 3.5 wins, so the team is roughly in line with where the should be at this point. The Knicks right now are at a crossroads with where the are going. You have players like Amare Stoudemire producing -.1 wins for the season, that surely won't continue as he definitely will be a productful player. On the other end of the spectrum, Wilson Chandler and Toney Douglas had torrid starts that have come back down and Ronny Turiaf will surely see his production decline.

A good coaching decision was made in putting Mozgov on the bench, you CANNOT be a center in this league and not get any rebounds. So here the Knicks sit at 3-5, and I don't know whether or not to be encouraged or discouraged.

2010 Knicks leaders in wins produced:

Landry Fields: 1.2 Wins
Raymond Felton: 1.1 Wins
Danilo Gallinari: .5 Wins
Ronny Turiaf: .5 Wins
Toney Douglas: .5 Wins
Wilson Chandler: .4 Wins
Anthony Randolph: .1 Wins
Roger Mason: 0 wins
Cliff Robinson in an Amare Stoudemire mask: -.1 Wins
Andy Rautins: -.1 Wins
Bill Walker: -.1 Wins
Timofey Mozgov: -.5 Wins

How Bad Was Amare Stoudemire?

2010-11-04T23:36:00.000-07:00

Let's look at his WS48 (Win Score per 48 minutes). Here is a summary on how to calculate win score

With that said...

14 pts. + 8 rebs. + 1 stl. + (1/2)*3 ast. + (1/2)*2 blk. - 21 fga. - 8 to. - (1/2)*5 fta - (1/2)*6 fouls. (37 minutes) = multiplying factor of 1.3 to calculate on a per 48 minute basis

Win score = -9
Win score 48 = -11.7

Average Power Forward WS48= +10.3

....at least he is an electrifying talent though!

Knicks cancelled

2010-11-02T23:24:00.000-07:00

Abestos? Really?

After 3 games, Amare Stoudemire has been the worst Knick. The 100 million dollar man has produced -.3 wins and has a WP48 of -.118. Will that continue? No. Does it bother me? Yes. At this pace Amare will produce -8.4 wins while getting paid 20 million a year for it.

Landry Fields has done a wonderful job as a rookie posting a WP48 of .419 in his first 3 career games. The Wages of Wins network has projected Fields to produce at a .212 WP48 (average of .100) in his rookie year. Not too bad for a guy who all the scouts had as a decent player in the for the Greek Olympicos squad.

Top 10 worst seasons ever since 2001:
#1 2011 Amare Stoudemire -8.4 wins
#2 Cliff Robinson -8.1 Wins
#3 John Amechi -6.9 Wins
#4 Adam Morrison -6.6 Wins
#5 Jason Collins -6.0 Wins
#6 Andrea Bargnani -6.0 Wins
#7 Cliff Robinson (2) -4.9 Wins
#8 Malik Allen -4.6 Wins
#9 Willie Gren -4.6 Wins
#10 Vin Baker -4.5 Wins

The most amazing thing is that Clifford Robinson appears on this list twice. Here is the seasons that Cliff had...

2001 Phoenix WoW wins (46.5) Cliff Robinson Wins (-4.9)
2002 Detroit WoW wins (46.3) Cliff Robinson Wins (-3.3)
2003 Detroit WoW wins (51.0) Cliff Robinson Wins (-4.2)
2004 Golden State WoW wins (38.8) Cliff Robinson Wins (-8.1)
2005 Golden State WoW wins (35.2) Cliff Robinson Wins (-2.6)
2006 New Jersey WoW wins (44.4) Cliff Robinson Wins (-2.5)
2007 New Jersey WoW wins (39.1) Cliff Robinson Wins (-3.4)

Over the course of 7 seasons the teams that he was on accumulated 301.3 Wins Produced using the formula used in the Wages of Wins. Cliff Robinson during those 301.3 cost his team 26.4 wins. How does a player stay in the league for those 7 seasons being that bad. The better question is how does a player that awful get enough minutes to play to accumulate those hideous numbers. This wasn't a coach having a love affair with a player situation...he played with 4 teams over that stretch and got big minutes from every coach. Sometimes you just need to shake your head.

Game 2

2010-10-29T09:13:00.001-07:00

New York Knicks (1-0)
at
Boston Celtics (1-1)

The Celtics beat the Miami Heat in the opener and since the Heat are obviously a better team than the Knicks, New York has no chance at winning this game. Actually it might be a good idea to get halloween started early.

Amare was less than stellar in his Knick debut commiting 9 turnovers. That guy out in the Bay Area now who really just put up his numbers in garbage time had a max turnover game of 5.

Wilson Chandler paying the power forward position for long stretches in the opener is eventually going to hurt the Knicks. He doesn't possess enough rebounding ability to get boards over taller players and despite what the announcers say, Wislon Chandler cannot stretch the floor. He simply isn't a good outside shooter.

Knicks win probability -100%

The Problem with Media People

2010-10-28T12:03:00.000-07:00

Well Charley Rosen is up to his usual no analysis season projections. As a general rule, any person who offers his opinion and uses phrases such as "Grit" or "Willpower" will offer nothing in the way of objective analysis.

Anyway, what irks me about this article is this phrase

MVP: "Even the writers and broadcasters who vote for this award have come to realize that Kobe does what LeBron wants to do. In any event, votes will be split between LBJ and D-Wade."

If you actually think Kobe is going to be the MVP of league...fine. I disagree with you, but that is your own opinion. Why is it that whenever LeBron is involved people always want to talk Kobe? In the season opener LeBron made a brilliant move to the basket and put the ball in and Steve Kerr chimed in with something like, "A great move by LeBron...I think probably only Kobe Bryant is the other player in the league that could do that." Kobe has absolutely nothing to do with LeBron James at all.

Furthermore, whenever Kobe Bryant does something nobody ever mentions LeBron. Why is that? If Kobe had done the exact same move do you think Kerr would have said, "Wow, a great play by Kobe. I think LeBron could do that too, though."

Back to Charley Rosen, I would really like to ask him what he means by "Kobe does what LeBron wants to do." As I talked about earlier in one of my posts, Kobe does nothing, NOTHING better than LeBron...except have better teammates. That is why last year Kobe had a WP48 of .179 and LeBron's was .429 (average of .100).

Game 1

2010-10-27T09:09:00.000-07:00

New York Knicks (+2) at
Toronto Raptors

Getting off to a good start in the NBA is crucial. If the Knicks win this game they will be on pace to set the best record of all time. If the lose, then it will be a long season. Therefore, this is the most important game of all time.

I'm interested to see who rebounds the ball for the Knicks because Amare isn't that great of a rebounder and in the pre-season Anthony Randolph and Ronny Turiaf didn't rebound particularly well either. I'm starting to miss David Lee already...

New Season - New Hopes

2010-10-18T09:51:00.000-07:00

Although I personally believe every year the Knicks have a chance to win, this year I truly do believe it. I can say gleefully that my gut reaction is that the Knicks can go .500 this year! That is truly a major step for a franchise that has done nothing right for the last 10 years. But what can we really expect from this team? To answer this question we can turn to WP48 and Wins Produced to forecast where the Knicks will finish this year. To do this forecasting I am utilizing a weighting system of 3-4-5 corresponding to the most recent year of performance outward to the last 3 years. It is not a perfect system due to injuries, coaching decisions about minutes, but still it should give a fairly good estimate of what to expect. For all rookies I am assigning 500 minutes and a WP48 of .050. This will again not be entirely accurate but will not alter the team total by that much. For this forecast I removed Eddy Curry's 2008 season of 1530 minutes because there is no way Eddy Curry plays more than 100 minutes this year or else I am becoming a Nets fan.

2011 Knicks Forecast

Using the weighted averages the Knicks look to win 27 games. Using last years performances the Knicks figure to win 30 games. Although as a caveat to those numbers, I thank Arturo greatly for his Wins Produced numbers, but I do not think Wilson Chandler is primarily a power forward but rather he is more often a shooting guard. The Knicks acquired players in the David Lee deal who were all injured last year and none of them played more than 1000 minutes.
Getting those guys healthy is of major importance to this team because I do not want to see Eddy Curry on the floor at all.

With all that, for 2011 I expect to see more minutes than forecasted from Gallo, Azuibuike, and Anthony Randoplh. Due to the positional difference with Wilson Chandler, I would say that the forecasted numbers are a bit low.

Final Prediction:

36-46

Who would you take 1 on 1?

2010-10-13T20:59:00.001-07:00

Such is the questioned posed by Rick Reilly in a fictional battle between LeBron James and Kobe Bryant.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=5680638

The consensus among the "experts" is that in a game with a referee calling fouls Kobe would win. In a game with no fouls, LeBron would take it down. I'm not exactly sure why having a ref would matter, for the most part every pick-up game I have ever played - not having a referee has no bearing on the game at all. Furthermore, Kobe has averaged my personal fouls per game than LeBron has (2.66 vs. 1.95) I do not understand why anyone would want Kobe Bryant instead of LeBron James in anything whether it be 1 on 1, a team game, the bottom line is LeBron is just a better player than Kobe.

Without getting into Win Score, WP48, or Wins Produced (which all favor LeBron)
Since the question is asked right now who would you take, here are the 2010 stats for the contestants:

LeBron:
Points 29.7
Assists: 8.6- although this would not matter in 1 on 1
Rebounds: 7.3
Steals: 1.64
Blocks: 1.01
Turnovers: 3.53
Fouls (if there was a ref): 1.53
FG %: .503

Kobe:
Points: 27.0
Assists: 5.0
Rebounds: 5.4
Steals: 1.55
Blocks: .27
Turnovers: 3.19
Fouls: 2.56
FG%: .456

Essentially what we are seeing is that LeBron does everything better except he does turn the ball over slightly more. This difference would largely be overcome by the fact that LeBron would make more shots, score more points, steal the ball more, block more shots, and get more rebounds.

On the other hand, I'm sure someone like Mark Jackson or Skip Bayless would argue that Kobe has more heart than LeBron, or he is a closer, or that he has the killer instinct that LeBron doesn't possess.

Seriously, in a one on one game this would not even be close. ESPN did this awhile ago when comparing Jeter to A-Rod. I forget the exact quote but Buster Olney said, "A-Rod would have the better jump-shot, better dribble, better defense, and have better overall skills, but Jeter would win 75% of the time." What is it with sportspeople and wanting to tear down the number 1 guys in the sport (Peyton Manning, LeBron James, A-Rod) and then prop up some other really good guy who isn't as good as the other guy on the basis of them being clutch, or just being a winner? (Tom Brady, Kobe Bryant, Derek Jeter)

David Berri's underrated list of Big Men

2010-10-08T16:04:00.000-07:00

at #3- David Lee...and Berri had this to say.

Years in top 10 Big Men: 07-10

Minutes Played: 9930

Wins Produced: 60.5

WP48: 0.292

David Lee I’m so glad you left the terrible franchise that is the Knicks. Hopefully new ownership and a new coach will make people notice how great you actually are in Golden State. It’s still a travesty that Walsh let you go, but their loss is the Warriors gain.

....Hey Dave, this is the Knicks....what did you expect? A good move?

The Way To Early Look at the Knicks

2010-09-27T22:56:00.000-07:00

For this way to early look at the Knicks, I will not weight player performance based on the last three years of a player. Rather this post will only focus on the WP48s and wins produced from the last season. I will also not forecast minutes or take a guess at starters/reserves yet (that will come closer to the start of the regular season.

Kelenna Azubuike (2009 numbers due to injury) WP48: .104 Wins 5.15
Wilson Chandler- WP48: -.032 Wins -1.55
Eddy Curry- WP48: -.249 Wins -.75
Toney Douglas- WP48: .076 Wins 1.72
Patrick Ewing Jr. (did not play)
Raymond Felton- WP48: .163 Wins 8.97
Landry Fields (Rookie)
Danilo Galinari- WP48: .101 Wins 5.78
Roger Mason- WP48: .051 Wins 1.61
Timofey Mozgov (Rookie)
Anthony Randolph- WP48: .095 Wins 1.48
Andy Rautins (Rookie)
Amare Stoudemire- WP48: .154 Wins 9.11
Ronny Turiaf- WP48: .067 Wins 1.22
Bill Walker- WP48: .135 Wins 2.08

Without projecting the rookies at this time, the biggest strength that the Knicks have with this team is that they are a young team. Knowing that players generally get better until the age of 25 in which the peak, the Knicks have a slew of players under 25 who have been around average players and could out-perform last year's numbers.

So the way to early look at the Knicks sees them winning 34 games. I think that this number has an excellent chance of being far below what will actually happen seeing as rookies have not been factored in. Also, Gallo, Toney Douglas, Bill Walker, Anthony Randolph, among others should improve on the performance they put together last year. Hopefully the Knicks can make a charge for a winning record for the first time since I think Nixon went on trial for Watergate.

Actually a Nets post about Carmelo

2010-09-20T21:30:00.000-07:00

Let me start by saying I agree with everything Jeff Pearlman says...about everything but sports. He and I have battled before about the Yankees and the greatness of A-Rod. But hey, that is what makes sports so great, you can go back anf forth all day with both people thinking the other one is completely clueless. This time I have to disagree with his proposal for the New Jersey/Brooklyn/Jay-Z/Prokarov Nets. Via his facebook since we are friends....

"If the New Jersey Nets can snag Carmelo Anthony from Denver for No. 3 overall pick Derrick Favors, the expiring deals of Troy Murphy and Kris Humphries plus at least one future first-round pick, they’re money. Real money. Carmelo is a Top-five talent; a guy I’d want on my roster were I moving to a new location in the coming years. He’d be an ideal face of the Brooklyn [FILL IN THE BLANK WITH THEIR NEW NAME], and the thought of teaming Anthony with Brook Lopez and Devin Harris is pretty damn appealing."

While true he may be an appealing face of the franchise when the team moves to Brooklyn, the bottom line is this trade is disastrous for the Nets. Troy Murphy has posted the following WP48s in the last three years: .281, .331, .149. and produced this amount of wins: 13.7, 17.1, 6.5.

Carmelo on the other hand has done the following: .109, .100, .131. wins of 6.0, 4.7, 7.6.

The other thing I don't understand is how are Brook Lopez and Devin Harris considered a good core group of players? The Nets won 12 games last year. Troy Murphy himself produced more wins than the Nets actually won. If those two were true "cornerstones", than the Nets would not have won 12 games last year. Earlier on the Wages of Wins site a post was offered how this years Wizards might be the worst team ever. A trade of Carmelo for Troy Murphy and the no.3 pick Derrick Favors may push the Nets over the top for worst team ever.

In other news: A-Rod hit one of his patented meaningless homeruns the other night to beat Baltimore.

Does Charley Rosen Watch basketball?

2010-08-29T21:15:00.000-07:00

Charley Rosen released his most overrated players and coach a few days ago. I wonder how he got to this list of players, because some of the names, Chris Paul and LeBron James are considered in basketball circles and in statistical communities to be top notch players. Did he just pick these two guys for shock value? I don't know. Here is his list of overrated players:

Point guard: Chris Paul, Jason Kidd

Jason Kidd was the 3rd most valuable player in the league last season when it comes to producing wins for his team. Which is also no fluke considering he has been in the top 6 most valuable 4 of the last 5 years. Chris Paul was the most valuable player in 2008 and 2009 and if it were not for an injury this year was a good bet to be right at the top of the list again in 2010. I really have nothing to say here for Charley, his selections of point guards on his overrated list is dreadful.

Shooting Guard: Joe Johnson, Vince Carter

Yes, The Wages of Wins has detailed how Joe Johnson got vastly overpaid and he is "overrated", he is not a bad player, but was completely undeserving of max-contract status.
I like what Charley says about Vince Carter,

"Vince Carter (Magic) is one of the most highly skilled players extant. But he can be rendered relatively impotent when forced left, and his own lack of heart routinely makes him prone to all kinds of miscues in the clutch."

That analysis just speaks for itself, imagine if Rosen would ever look at Carter per minute performance in "clutch situations" and see that Carter performs equal in those minutes as he does in garbage time.

Small Forward: Lebron James

Where does one even come up with the stance? Skip Bayless school of analysis? LeBron was the most valuable player in the league in 2010 and number 2 in 2009, while posting WP48s of .400+ in 2 consecutive years...very rarified air. But hey, I hear LeBron isn't a closer, so maybe Rosen is right.

Power Forward: Chris Boozer

Analysis from Rosen, "Fills the stat column with late-game jumpers, but good teams neutralize him when the game is on the line." Apparently Boozer is the Alex Rodriguez of the NBA in that he scores all his points when the game is over. Boozer posted a .290 WP48 last year, good for 1st amongst power forwards.

Center: Dwight Howard

Again, another assinine pick to the overrated team by Charley. Dwight was the 2nd most valuable player in the league in 2010, #3 in 2009, #2 in 2008, #5 in 2007. Yes, that certainly is the mark of an overrated player right there. Maybe if Dwight Howard would develop an outside shot he would enhance his game and then really become an elite player! Oh wait....

It is obvious that Charley Rosen does not evaluate players correctly, it is quite possible that the players on his overrated list, will in fact make up the top 5 of MOST VALUABLE players in 2011. Charley is so pre-occupied on clutch performance that it clouds his vision of evaluation. Really, any person who ever mentions clutch situations in an evaluation of a player is just plain wrong. It is fairly common knowledge that a player will not perform differently in a clutch situation than any other ones.

Carmelo to NY?

2010-08-17T10:25:00.000-07:00

It appears more and more likely that Carmelo Anthony is leaning towards signing with the Knicks via free agency next season, or will force a trade to New York this season. David Haverstoh has his take on Carmelo Anthony here http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/news/story?id=5439653

The premise of his article is correct that Anthony is not the player he is touted to be. The value added by his 28.3 ppg average is more than given back by the inefficency in the way Anthony scores. Points aren't all that contributes to a player's value, all components including rebounds, steals, assists, and others are needed to calculate the amount of wins a player contributes to the team.

My dad says you need to factor in that Carmelo Anthony can "get his shot off"
Interesting is that in games where Carmelo doesn't play, his teammates take more shots than normal. There is no evidence that a player can "get his shot".

What do we expect from Carmelo in 2011? To calculate lets look at WP48 for the last 3 seasons along with the minutes he has played. The following weights are applied (2008*3+2009*4+2010*5)

2008: WP48- .131 Minutes- 2806
2009: WP48- .100 Mniutes- 2277
2010: WP48- .108 Minutes- 2634

2011: WP48- .111 Minutes- 2558 Wins: 5.9

Much is being made about how well the Amar'e-Melo tandem would do. The indication is that the duo would STILL not be enough to lift the Knicks into contention (for a playoff series win).

Any trade the Knicks make, a combo of Gallo, Chandler, or Anthony Randolph would make the Knicks a lesser team. If he goes to the Knicks on a max contract, there is no chance his win production per million will be a benefit to the Knicks. Again, it appears as though the Knicks are on the wrong side of a rumor.

Rudy Fernandez to NYK?

2010-07-29T10:21:00.000-07:00

Portland and SG Rudy Fernandez are looking to mutually part ways before the upcoming season. The Knicks are rumored to be in the mix for his services. The only problem is, via ESPN, Portland is looking for a first round pick for Rudy.

The Knicks cannot offer a first round pick because the NBA does not allow trading first round picks in consecutive years. The Knicks traded 2011 to the Jazz and 2012 to the Rockets, which makes trading a 2013 first round pick disallowed.

More importantly, how does Rudy project as a Knick?

He has not played more than 2000 minutes in his years with Portland but has produced an above average WP48 of .157 in 2009 and .131 in 2010.

With that we can expect another above performer with the Knicks, which is a shock to think the Knicks can actually have multiple above average performers on the team....at one time!

Al Harington

2010-07-19T11:22:00.000-07:00

Fresh off his albatross of a 34 million dollar deal, Al had this to say about the Knicks coach.

"D'Antoni didn't like me."

Maybe it's because you are not a very productive player, Al?

----Just a thought.

Evaluating the deals so far

2010-07-16T08:41:00.000-07:00

I'll admit this post will be more optimistic than the last two. Generally, I am happy with Donnie Walsh has been able to do since missing out in the LeBron sweepstakes.

1) Trade David Lee for Kelena Azubuike, Anthony Randolph, Ronny Turiaf
2) Sign Raymond Felton
3) Sign Timofey Mozgov from Russia

I was ready to jump ship on the Knicks, like the guy down the hall from me here at Qualcomm has done, if the Knicks traded Lee for Monta Ellis. So what does the haul for D-Lee bring?

In Randolph you get a 21 year old who has posted good, but not stellar WP48s in his first two years. Knowing that player performance peaks at 24-25, hopefully Randolph can continue to improve in his tenure with NY.

Azubuike was injured last year, but in 231 minutes did post a WP48 of .231. His previous two seasons he produced at .083 and a .115 clip. I would assume the true talent level lies in between his 2008 and 2009 season.

Turiaf has improved his last 3 seasons and will provide the Knicks with some depth in the front court.

Raymond Felton has gone from a below average player in 2008, an average player in 2009, to a very good player in 2010. Again, I am hopeful that he can repeat his 2010 season, but it is doubtful and once again I would think his true talent level is closer to his .095 WP48 season of 2009.

I have no idea what to expect from the Russia player, other than scouts say he is the real deal. Hopefully he didn't sleep under Darko Milicic posters when he went to bed.

The summation is that the 2010 Knicks had a star player in David Lee and the rest of the cast was below average.

The Knicks do not have a star player on the 2011 version of this team, (WP48 of .200+) but have assembled a few above average players in Amar'e, Anthony Randolph, and hopefully Felton and Azubuike can duplicate the last season and bring a meaningful contribution.

If you have any suggestions for what you would like to see on this blog in the way of analysis or topics, don't hesitate to e-mail me: ashookhoff@hotmail.com

Just when you think Donnie Walsh can't screw up anymore...

2010-07-05T10:43:00.000-07:00

The latest rumblings via ESPN is that the "Basketball Lifer" GM Donnie Walsh and his front office are looking at the possibility of a sign and trade with the Golden State Warriors. The trade? Monta Ellis for David Lee.

When I heard this news I almost fell off my computer chair, and then I checked the date to see if it was April 1. Nope, July 5, and the Knicks are at it again. Before getting into the 2011 forecast for each of the players, why is it that the only team in the league that doesn't want Lee on their team happens to be the Knicks? It just makes no sense to me. The Knicks seem to be evaluating David Lee as if he is a replacement player.

Anyway here are the 2011 forecasts for Monta Ellis and David Lee.

Monta Ellis: 2168 Mins. .048 WP48 2.2 Wins

David Lee: 2788 Mins. .286 WP48 16.6 Wins

Yes, this seems like a very good for the Knicks to make. Lets hand the Golden State Warriors 14.4 Wins. It is just mind-boggling that the Knicks can continually do these things. Do I expect NBA front office personnel to understand Wins Produced, APBRmetrics, or even the PER? No, but I do expect that once...ONCE!! the Knicks would come up on the right side of a trade.

As the Knicks start off by ruining free agency

2010-07-03T21:17:00.000-07:00

After two years of slashing pay roll and getting under the cap, free agency finally arrived on July 1. The Knicks so far have been rewarded with news that it seems that LeBron will not be playing in Madison Square Garden come 2010-2011. Plan B? Well that is where once again the Knicks make a mistake in this horrid decade. Word came out that the Knicks have offered Amar'e Stoudemire 100 million dollars over 5 years to come to Gotham?

The perception is that Stoudemire is a force on the inerior and a freakish athlete. Certainly worth a max contract! WRONG!

In 2010 Amar'e was the 3rd most valuable player on his team in terms of Wins Produced with 8.6 and a WP48 of .146 (average being .100) The player that will no longer be employed by the New York Knicks, David Lee contributed 17.3 wins along with a .275 WP48 to the Knicks cause. So yes, this fits right in with the script of the past ten years, getting rid of star players who will come cheaper and replacing them with mac contract above average players.

Also, in addition the Knicks are rumored to be offering a max contract to the incredible talent Joe Johnson. Again, the Knicks are targeting the third best player on the team and offering a max contract. How did Joe Johnson do last year? A WP48 of .130 and 7.8 wins produced.

To project the Knicks with these two players I will do a three year regression with weights of 3/4/5 to represent the years.

Amar'e Stoudemire: 2500 Mins. .168 WP48 8.7 Wins
Joe Johnson: 3080 Mins. .110 WP48 7.1 Wins

The other players on the Knicks do not figure to do much with Danilo Gallinari and Toney Douglas being below average players in the early part of their careers. Eddy Curry should never appear on a basketball court again. Bill Walker did show some promise with the Knicks in his limited 729 mins. last year, however, posting a .129 WP48.

With the combo of Amar'e and Joe Johnson, if the play at expectation level, the Knicks can expect to accumulate 15.8 wins these two running the show. Or, in other words, the Knicks signed two players to maximum deals and collectively they will give the Knicks less than the player that they are letting walk away in David Lee.

Oh, the joy of being a Knick fan!!