Although I personally believe every year the Knicks have a chance to win, this year I truly do believe it. I can say gleefully that my gut reaction is that the Knicks can go .500 this year! That is truly a major step for a franchise that has done nothing right for the last 10 years. But what can we really expect from this team? To answer this question we can turn to WP48 and Wins Produced to forecast where the Knicks will finish this year. To do this forecasting I am utilizing a weighting system of 3-4-5 corresponding to the most recent year of performance outward to the last 3 years. It is not a perfect system due to injuries, coaching decisions about minutes, but still it should give a fairly good estimate of what to expect. For all rookies I am assigning 500 minutes and a WP48 of .050. This will again not be entirely accurate but will not alter the team total by that much. For this forecast I removed Eddy Curry's 2008 season of 1530 minutes because there is no way Eddy Curry plays more than 100 minutes this year or else I am becoming a Nets fan.
2011 Knicks Forecast
Using the weighted averages the Knicks look to win 27 games. Using last years performances the Knicks figure to win 30 games. Although as a caveat to those numbers, I thank Arturo greatly for his Wins Produced numbers, but I do not think Wilson Chandler is primarily a power forward but rather he is more often a shooting guard. The Knicks acquired players in the David Lee deal who were all injured last year and none of them played more than 1000 minutes.
Getting those guys healthy is of major importance to this team because I do not want to see Eddy Curry on the floor at all.
With all that, for 2011 I expect to see more minutes than forecasted from Gallo, Azuibuike, and Anthony Randoplh. Due to the positional difference with Wilson Chandler, I would say that the forecasted numbers are a bit low.
Final Prediction:
36-46
Monday, October 18, 2010
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Who would you take 1 on 1?
Such is the questioned posed by Rick Reilly in a fictional battle between LeBron James and Kobe Bryant.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=5680638
The consensus among the "experts" is that in a game with a referee calling fouls Kobe would win. In a game with no fouls, LeBron would take it down. I'm not exactly sure why having a ref would matter, for the most part every pick-up game I have ever played - not having a referee has no bearing on the game at all. Furthermore, Kobe has averaged my personal fouls per game than LeBron has (2.66 vs. 1.95) I do not understand why anyone would want Kobe Bryant instead of LeBron James in anything whether it be 1 on 1, a team game, the bottom line is LeBron is just a better player than Kobe.
Without getting into Win Score, WP48, or Wins Produced (which all favor LeBron)
Since the question is asked right now who would you take, here are the 2010 stats for the contestants:
LeBron:
Points 29.7
Assists: 8.6- although this would not matter in 1 on 1
Rebounds: 7.3
Steals: 1.64
Blocks: 1.01
Turnovers: 3.53
Fouls (if there was a ref): 1.53
FG %: .503
Kobe:
Points: 27.0
Assists: 5.0
Rebounds: 5.4
Steals: 1.55
Blocks: .27
Turnovers: 3.19
Fouls: 2.56
FG%: .456
Essentially what we are seeing is that LeBron does everything better except he does turn the ball over slightly more. This difference would largely be overcome by the fact that LeBron would make more shots, score more points, steal the ball more, block more shots, and get more rebounds.
On the other hand, I'm sure someone like Mark Jackson or Skip Bayless would argue that Kobe has more heart than LeBron, or he is a closer, or that he has the killer instinct that LeBron doesn't possess.
Seriously, in a one on one game this would not even be close. ESPN did this awhile ago when comparing Jeter to A-Rod. I forget the exact quote but Buster Olney said, "A-Rod would have the better jump-shot, better dribble, better defense, and have better overall skills, but Jeter would win 75% of the time." What is it with sportspeople and wanting to tear down the number 1 guys in the sport (Peyton Manning, LeBron James, A-Rod) and then prop up some other really good guy who isn't as good as the other guy on the basis of them being clutch, or just being a winner? (Tom Brady, Kobe Bryant, Derek Jeter)
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=5680638
The consensus among the "experts" is that in a game with a referee calling fouls Kobe would win. In a game with no fouls, LeBron would take it down. I'm not exactly sure why having a ref would matter, for the most part every pick-up game I have ever played - not having a referee has no bearing on the game at all. Furthermore, Kobe has averaged my personal fouls per game than LeBron has (2.66 vs. 1.95) I do not understand why anyone would want Kobe Bryant instead of LeBron James in anything whether it be 1 on 1, a team game, the bottom line is LeBron is just a better player than Kobe.
Without getting into Win Score, WP48, or Wins Produced (which all favor LeBron)
Since the question is asked right now who would you take, here are the 2010 stats for the contestants:
LeBron:
Points 29.7
Assists: 8.6- although this would not matter in 1 on 1
Rebounds: 7.3
Steals: 1.64
Blocks: 1.01
Turnovers: 3.53
Fouls (if there was a ref): 1.53
FG %: .503
Kobe:
Points: 27.0
Assists: 5.0
Rebounds: 5.4
Steals: 1.55
Blocks: .27
Turnovers: 3.19
Fouls: 2.56
FG%: .456
Essentially what we are seeing is that LeBron does everything better except he does turn the ball over slightly more. This difference would largely be overcome by the fact that LeBron would make more shots, score more points, steal the ball more, block more shots, and get more rebounds.
On the other hand, I'm sure someone like Mark Jackson or Skip Bayless would argue that Kobe has more heart than LeBron, or he is a closer, or that he has the killer instinct that LeBron doesn't possess.
Seriously, in a one on one game this would not even be close. ESPN did this awhile ago when comparing Jeter to A-Rod. I forget the exact quote but Buster Olney said, "A-Rod would have the better jump-shot, better dribble, better defense, and have better overall skills, but Jeter would win 75% of the time." What is it with sportspeople and wanting to tear down the number 1 guys in the sport (Peyton Manning, LeBron James, A-Rod) and then prop up some other really good guy who isn't as good as the other guy on the basis of them being clutch, or just being a winner? (Tom Brady, Kobe Bryant, Derek Jeter)
Friday, October 8, 2010
David Berri's underrated list of Big Men
at #3- David Lee...and Berri had this to say.
Years in top 10 Big Men: 07-10 Minutes Played: 9930 Wins Produced: 60.5 WP48: 0.292
David Lee I’m so glad you left the terrible franchise that is the Knicks. Hopefully new ownership and a new coach will make people notice how great you actually are in Golden State. It’s still a travesty that Walsh let you go, but their loss is the Warriors gain.
....Hey Dave, this is the Knicks....what did you expect? A good move?
Monday, September 27, 2010
The Way To Early Look at the Knicks
For this way to early look at the Knicks, I will not weight player performance based on the last three years of a player. Rather this post will only focus on the WP48s and wins produced from the last season. I will also not forecast minutes or take a guess at starters/reserves yet (that will come closer to the start of the regular season.
Kelenna Azubuike (2009 numbers due to injury) WP48: .104 Wins 5.15
Wilson Chandler- WP48: -.032 Wins -1.55
Eddy Curry- WP48: -.249 Wins -.75
Toney Douglas- WP48: .076 Wins 1.72
Patrick Ewing Jr. (did not play)
Raymond Felton- WP48: .163 Wins 8.97
Landry Fields (Rookie)
Danilo Galinari- WP48: .101 Wins 5.78
Roger Mason- WP48: .051 Wins 1.61
Timofey Mozgov (Rookie)
Anthony Randolph- WP48: .095 Wins 1.48
Andy Rautins (Rookie)
Amare Stoudemire- WP48: .154 Wins 9.11
Ronny Turiaf- WP48: .067 Wins 1.22
Bill Walker- WP48: .135 Wins 2.08
Without projecting the rookies at this time, the biggest strength that the Knicks have with this team is that they are a young team. Knowing that players generally get better until the age of 25 in which the peak, the Knicks have a slew of players under 25 who have been around average players and could out-perform last year's numbers.
So the way to early look at the Knicks sees them winning 34 games. I think that this number has an excellent chance of being far below what will actually happen seeing as rookies have not been factored in. Also, Gallo, Toney Douglas, Bill Walker, Anthony Randolph, among others should improve on the performance they put together last year. Hopefully the Knicks can make a charge for a winning record for the first time since I think Nixon went on trial for Watergate.
Kelenna Azubuike (2009 numbers due to injury) WP48: .104 Wins 5.15
Wilson Chandler- WP48: -.032 Wins -1.55
Eddy Curry- WP48: -.249 Wins -.75
Toney Douglas- WP48: .076 Wins 1.72
Patrick Ewing Jr. (did not play)
Raymond Felton- WP48: .163 Wins 8.97
Landry Fields (Rookie)
Danilo Galinari- WP48: .101 Wins 5.78
Roger Mason- WP48: .051 Wins 1.61
Timofey Mozgov (Rookie)
Anthony Randolph- WP48: .095 Wins 1.48
Andy Rautins (Rookie)
Amare Stoudemire- WP48: .154 Wins 9.11
Ronny Turiaf- WP48: .067 Wins 1.22
Bill Walker- WP48: .135 Wins 2.08
Without projecting the rookies at this time, the biggest strength that the Knicks have with this team is that they are a young team. Knowing that players generally get better until the age of 25 in which the peak, the Knicks have a slew of players under 25 who have been around average players and could out-perform last year's numbers.
So the way to early look at the Knicks sees them winning 34 games. I think that this number has an excellent chance of being far below what will actually happen seeing as rookies have not been factored in. Also, Gallo, Toney Douglas, Bill Walker, Anthony Randolph, among others should improve on the performance they put together last year. Hopefully the Knicks can make a charge for a winning record for the first time since I think Nixon went on trial for Watergate.
Monday, September 20, 2010
Actually a Nets post about Carmelo
Let me start by saying I agree with everything Jeff Pearlman says...about everything but sports. He and I have battled before about the Yankees and the greatness of A-Rod. But hey, that is what makes sports so great, you can go back anf forth all day with both people thinking the other one is completely clueless. This time I have to disagree with his proposal for the New Jersey/Brooklyn/Jay-Z/Prokarov Nets. Via his facebook since we are friends....
"If the New Jersey Nets can snag Carmelo Anthony from Denver for No. 3 overall pick Derrick Favors, the expiring deals of Troy Murphy and Kris Humphries plus at least one future first-round pick, they’re money. Real money. Carmelo is a Top-five talent; a guy I’d want on my roster were I moving to a new location in the coming years. He’d be an ideal face of the Brooklyn [FILL IN THE BLANK WITH THEIR NEW NAME], and the thought of teaming Anthony with Brook Lopez and Devin Harris is pretty damn appealing."
While true he may be an appealing face of the franchise when the team moves to Brooklyn, the bottom line is this trade is disastrous for the Nets. Troy Murphy has posted the following WP48s in the last three years: .281, .331, .149. and produced this amount of wins: 13.7, 17.1, 6.5.
Carmelo on the other hand has done the following: .109, .100, .131. wins of 6.0, 4.7, 7.6.
The other thing I don't understand is how are Brook Lopez and Devin Harris considered a good core group of players? The Nets won 12 games last year. Troy Murphy himself produced more wins than the Nets actually won. If those two were true "cornerstones", than the Nets would not have won 12 games last year. Earlier on the Wages of Wins site a post was offered how this years Wizards might be the worst team ever. A trade of Carmelo for Troy Murphy and the no.3 pick Derrick Favors may push the Nets over the top for worst team ever.
In other news: A-Rod hit one of his patented meaningless homeruns the other night to beat Baltimore.
"If the New Jersey Nets can snag Carmelo Anthony from Denver for No. 3 overall pick Derrick Favors, the expiring deals of Troy Murphy and Kris Humphries plus at least one future first-round pick, they’re money. Real money. Carmelo is a Top-five talent; a guy I’d want on my roster were I moving to a new location in the coming years. He’d be an ideal face of the Brooklyn [FILL IN THE BLANK WITH THEIR NEW NAME], and the thought of teaming Anthony with Brook Lopez and Devin Harris is pretty damn appealing."
While true he may be an appealing face of the franchise when the team moves to Brooklyn, the bottom line is this trade is disastrous for the Nets. Troy Murphy has posted the following WP48s in the last three years: .281, .331, .149. and produced this amount of wins: 13.7, 17.1, 6.5.
Carmelo on the other hand has done the following: .109, .100, .131. wins of 6.0, 4.7, 7.6.
The other thing I don't understand is how are Brook Lopez and Devin Harris considered a good core group of players? The Nets won 12 games last year. Troy Murphy himself produced more wins than the Nets actually won. If those two were true "cornerstones", than the Nets would not have won 12 games last year. Earlier on the Wages of Wins site a post was offered how this years Wizards might be the worst team ever. A trade of Carmelo for Troy Murphy and the no.3 pick Derrick Favors may push the Nets over the top for worst team ever.
In other news: A-Rod hit one of his patented meaningless homeruns the other night to beat Baltimore.
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Does Charley Rosen Watch basketball?
Charley Rosen released his most overrated players and coach a few days ago. I wonder how he got to this list of players, because some of the names, Chris Paul and LeBron James are considered in basketball circles and in statistical communities to be top notch players. Did he just pick these two guys for shock value? I don't know. Here is his list of overrated players:
Point guard: Chris Paul, Jason Kidd
Jason Kidd was the 3rd most valuable player in the league last season when it comes to producing wins for his team. Which is also no fluke considering he has been in the top 6 most valuable 4 of the last 5 years. Chris Paul was the most valuable player in 2008 and 2009 and if it were not for an injury this year was a good bet to be right at the top of the list again in 2010. I really have nothing to say here for Charley, his selections of point guards on his overrated list is dreadful.
Shooting Guard: Joe Johnson, Vince Carter
Yes, The Wages of Wins has detailed how Joe Johnson got vastly overpaid and he is "overrated", he is not a bad player, but was completely undeserving of max-contract status.
I like what Charley says about Vince Carter,
"Vince Carter (Magic) is one of the most highly skilled players extant. But he can be rendered relatively impotent when forced left, and his own lack of heart routinely makes him prone to all kinds of miscues in the clutch."
That analysis just speaks for itself, imagine if Rosen would ever look at Carter per minute performance in "clutch situations" and see that Carter performs equal in those minutes as he does in garbage time.
Small Forward: Lebron James
Where does one even come up with the stance? Skip Bayless school of analysis? LeBron was the most valuable player in the league in 2010 and number 2 in 2009, while posting WP48s of .400+ in 2 consecutive years...very rarified air. But hey, I hear LeBron isn't a closer, so maybe Rosen is right.
Power Forward: Chris Boozer
Analysis from Rosen, "Fills the stat column with late-game jumpers, but good teams neutralize him when the game is on the line." Apparently Boozer is the Alex Rodriguez of the NBA in that he scores all his points when the game is over. Boozer posted a .290 WP48 last year, good for 1st amongst power forwards.
Center: Dwight Howard
Again, another assinine pick to the overrated team by Charley. Dwight was the 2nd most valuable player in the league in 2010, #3 in 2009, #2 in 2008, #5 in 2007. Yes, that certainly is the mark of an overrated player right there. Maybe if Dwight Howard would develop an outside shot he would enhance his game and then really become an elite player! Oh wait....
It is obvious that Charley Rosen does not evaluate players correctly, it is quite possible that the players on his overrated list, will in fact make up the top 5 of MOST VALUABLE players in 2011. Charley is so pre-occupied on clutch performance that it clouds his vision of evaluation. Really, any person who ever mentions clutch situations in an evaluation of a player is just plain wrong. It is fairly common knowledge that a player will not perform differently in a clutch situation than any other ones.
Point guard: Chris Paul, Jason Kidd
Jason Kidd was the 3rd most valuable player in the league last season when it comes to producing wins for his team. Which is also no fluke considering he has been in the top 6 most valuable 4 of the last 5 years. Chris Paul was the most valuable player in 2008 and 2009 and if it were not for an injury this year was a good bet to be right at the top of the list again in 2010. I really have nothing to say here for Charley, his selections of point guards on his overrated list is dreadful.
Shooting Guard: Joe Johnson, Vince Carter
Yes, The Wages of Wins has detailed how Joe Johnson got vastly overpaid and he is "overrated", he is not a bad player, but was completely undeserving of max-contract status.
I like what Charley says about Vince Carter,
"Vince Carter (Magic) is one of the most highly skilled players extant. But he can be rendered relatively impotent when forced left, and his own lack of heart routinely makes him prone to all kinds of miscues in the clutch."
That analysis just speaks for itself, imagine if Rosen would ever look at Carter per minute performance in "clutch situations" and see that Carter performs equal in those minutes as he does in garbage time.
Small Forward: Lebron James
Where does one even come up with the stance? Skip Bayless school of analysis? LeBron was the most valuable player in the league in 2010 and number 2 in 2009, while posting WP48s of .400+ in 2 consecutive years...very rarified air. But hey, I hear LeBron isn't a closer, so maybe Rosen is right.
Power Forward: Chris Boozer
Analysis from Rosen, "Fills the stat column with late-game jumpers, but good teams neutralize him when the game is on the line." Apparently Boozer is the Alex Rodriguez of the NBA in that he scores all his points when the game is over. Boozer posted a .290 WP48 last year, good for 1st amongst power forwards.
Center: Dwight Howard
Again, another assinine pick to the overrated team by Charley. Dwight was the 2nd most valuable player in the league in 2010, #3 in 2009, #2 in 2008, #5 in 2007. Yes, that certainly is the mark of an overrated player right there. Maybe if Dwight Howard would develop an outside shot he would enhance his game and then really become an elite player! Oh wait....
It is obvious that Charley Rosen does not evaluate players correctly, it is quite possible that the players on his overrated list, will in fact make up the top 5 of MOST VALUABLE players in 2011. Charley is so pre-occupied on clutch performance that it clouds his vision of evaluation. Really, any person who ever mentions clutch situations in an evaluation of a player is just plain wrong. It is fairly common knowledge that a player will not perform differently in a clutch situation than any other ones.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Carmelo to NY?
It appears more and more likely that Carmelo Anthony is leaning towards signing with the Knicks via free agency next season, or will force a trade to New York this season. David Haverstoh has his take on Carmelo Anthony here http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/news/story?id=5439653
The premise of his article is correct that Anthony is not the player he is touted to be. The value added by his 28.3 ppg average is more than given back by the inefficency in the way Anthony scores. Points aren't all that contributes to a player's value, all components including rebounds, steals, assists, and others are needed to calculate the amount of wins a player contributes to the team.
My dad says you need to factor in that Carmelo Anthony can "get his shot off"
Interesting is that in games where Carmelo doesn't play, his teammates take more shots than normal. There is no evidence that a player can "get his shot".
What do we expect from Carmelo in 2011? To calculate lets look at WP48 for the last 3 seasons along with the minutes he has played. The following weights are applied (2008*3+2009*4+2010*5)
2008: WP48- .131 Minutes- 2806
2009: WP48- .100 Mniutes- 2277
2010: WP48- .108 Minutes- 2634
2011: WP48- .111 Minutes- 2558 Wins: 5.9
Much is being made about how well the Amar'e-Melo tandem would do. The indication is that the duo would STILL not be enough to lift the Knicks into contention (for a playoff series win).
Any trade the Knicks make, a combo of Gallo, Chandler, or Anthony Randolph would make the Knicks a lesser team. If he goes to the Knicks on a max contract, there is no chance his win production per million will be a benefit to the Knicks. Again, it appears as though the Knicks are on the wrong side of a rumor.
The premise of his article is correct that Anthony is not the player he is touted to be. The value added by his 28.3 ppg average is more than given back by the inefficency in the way Anthony scores. Points aren't all that contributes to a player's value, all components including rebounds, steals, assists, and others are needed to calculate the amount of wins a player contributes to the team.
My dad says you need to factor in that Carmelo Anthony can "get his shot off"
Interesting is that in games where Carmelo doesn't play, his teammates take more shots than normal. There is no evidence that a player can "get his shot".
What do we expect from Carmelo in 2011? To calculate lets look at WP48 for the last 3 seasons along with the minutes he has played. The following weights are applied (2008*3+2009*4+2010*5)
2008: WP48- .131 Minutes- 2806
2009: WP48- .100 Mniutes- 2277
2010: WP48- .108 Minutes- 2634
2011: WP48- .111 Minutes- 2558 Wins: 5.9
Much is being made about how well the Amar'e-Melo tandem would do. The indication is that the duo would STILL not be enough to lift the Knicks into contention (for a playoff series win).
Any trade the Knicks make, a combo of Gallo, Chandler, or Anthony Randolph would make the Knicks a lesser team. If he goes to the Knicks on a max contract, there is no chance his win production per million will be a benefit to the Knicks. Again, it appears as though the Knicks are on the wrong side of a rumor.
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