Saturday, November 27, 2010

Kobe a top 10 all time player?

Is the question that Scoop Jackson poses. I don't know how he got in contact with all the people that he asked, but the majority opinion was YES. Obviously, I disagree. When describing why Kobe should be a top 10 all time player, the number one response was "5 titles." All I have to say to that is, "Shaq, a down period, and then Gasol."

I thought a better question would be since 2001, the first year that the Wins Produced metric has been out, has Kobe been a top 10 player in any given year since 2001?

2001- 9.8 Wins Produced (#34)
2002- 12.6 Wins Produced (#18)
2003- 18.4 Wins Produced (#7)
2004- 11.8 Wins Produced (#19)
2005- 10.0 Wins Produced (#33)
2006- 13.5 Wins Produced (#20)
2007- 15.3 Wins Produced (#13)
2008- 17.2 Wins Produced (#7)
2009- 14.5 Wins Produced (#12)
2010- 10.3 Wins Produced (#29)

Since 2001, Kobe has never finished higher than the 7th most valuable player in the league. His average placement in terms of value has been the 19th most valuable in the league. So what we have here is a player that has been one of the better players over the past 10 seasons but has not been an elite player in the NBA. Yet, despite this information people still assume that Kobe has been a top 10 player of all time.

The reasons for this probably have to do with the popularity of his team. The media market in Los Angeles. And that he has been fortunate enough to play with great teams his entire career, except for a 3 year period when Shaq was gone and before the great Kwame Brown was traded for Pau Gasol.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

It Happened

Late last night, Amar'e Stoudemire became a productive player. After 12 games, he has finally pushed his way into positive territory via Wins Produced and WP48. Right now he has produced .2 wins to the cause.

Landry Fields continues to be a force, in fact he has been by far the best rookie. Not bad for someone who didn't make Chad Ford's top 100 prospects. So far he has produced 2.3 Wins, the next closest rookie is Blake Griffin with 1.0 wins. It looks like Landry Fields could be a keeper for years to come...or until he gets traded for Carmelo Anthony.

The Knicks desperately need to move Wilson Chandler out of the '4' spot. Currently he is playing 74% of his minutes there, accorind the automated wins produced via Andres Alvarez. Either the Knicks need to acquire a power forward, or play him minutes when Amar'e and Ronny Turiaf are on the floor. The reason for this needed change is that Wilson is not particularly efficent with his shooting and he is not a good enough rebounder to sustain much value playing at the power forward spot.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

How good were Houston and Sprewell?

These two were considered the catalysts for the Knicks in their late 90s run. Yet these two were still on the team during the beginning of the demise in the early 2000s. The Wins Produced numbers only go back to 2001 as of now, but lets look at these two and see what they were able to accomplish. Reminder: Average WP48 is .100

Allan Houston
.075 WP48
4.5 Wins Produced
2858 Minutes

Latrell Sprewell
.064 WP48
4.0 Wins Produced
3017 Minutes

Houston and Sprewell (8.5 Wins) Rest of Team (39 Wins)

In 2001 Sprewell and Houston were both below avergae performers but were able to contribute 8.5 wins because of the large number of minutes that they played. This story follows a similar pattern.

Allan Houston
.011 WP48
.7 Wins Produced
2914 Minutes

Latrell Sprewell
-.012 WP48
-.8 Wins Produced
3326 Minutes

Houston and Sprewell (-.1 Wins) Rest of Team (30.4 Wins)

In 2002 the all-star combo produced -.1 Wins. Yes, they actually were a negative on the Knicks season. It should be noted that the rest of the team performed remarkably similar to the previous year. The only difference being Marcus Camby only produced 4.4 Wins as opposed to the 16.9 that he did in 2001, he only played in 29 games in 2002.

Allan Houston
.042 WP48
2.7 Wins Produced
3108 Minutes

Latrell Sprewell
.052 WP48
3.1 Wins Produced
2859 Minutes

Houston and Sprewell (4.8 Wins Produced) Rest of Team (31.3 Wins Produced)

Again the team performed fairly similar to the way they had performed in the past, except this year Marcus Camby was no longer with the team and the subsequent performace dropped. This is a continual pattern of the Knicks having a fairly decent team around the alleged two superstarts, if these two were actual superstars, then the Knicks would have been a juggernaut. Unfortunately, these two were not very good players.

The reason that the there is a difference in perception and reality regarding these two is that both of them could score the ball. Unfortunately, that is all they could do as neither of them were very good rebounders, they both turned the ball over and neither created a lot of turnover via steals. However, since player performace is driven by points per game and nothing else, these two were thought of as great players. The numbers tell a different story and offer an explanation as to why the Knicks could never get over the hump, the team around Sprewell and Houston was a pretty decent one. Unfortunately the big two were not very big at all.

Knicks using advanced metrics

The Knicks actually use advanced metrics

It seems to me that they use them more for player tendencies rather than evaluation.

Monday, November 15, 2010

Reviewing the DLee trade

Knicks send David Lee to the Golden State Warriors for Kelenna Azubuike, Ronny Turiaf, Anthony Randolph.

After 10 games this season, it is not surprising that all the of the players that the Knicks received back have been injured at some point this season. Not surprising since all the players the Knicks acquired have had injury problems in the past.

Ronny Turiaf in 2011 has posted a solid .145 WP48 and produced .5 wins. That is probably higher than what to expect considering he has never posted a WP48 over .073 in his career.

Azubuike hasn't played yet and this comes after only playing in 9 games last season.

Anthony Randolph has been particularly horrible this year and D'Antoni seems reluctant to let him play so far, playing only 12 minutes per game. For the supposed centerpiece of this deal, he has played to the tune of -.025 WP48. He is only 22, so there is hope for a turnaround, but a player that is 22 and producing in the negative range after missing 50 games last season is not something to look favorably on.

In a separate note, the Knicks rid themselves of David Lee to acquire Amar'e Stoudemire. While I don't fault them for doing this, they needed to have the perception of upgrade. Even though WoW readers know that David Lee is the better player, the popular opinion is that Amar'e is superior.

Well so far Amar'e has produced -.1 wins on the year.

Summary: Knicks acquire Amar'e Stoudemire, Ronny Turiaf, Kelenna Azubuike, Anthony Randolph ( Total Wins Produced .4)

For David Lee (Total Wins Produced 1.1)

Looks like another NYK Mistake!

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Are we encouraged or discouraged?

Through the first 8 games the Knicks sit at 3-5. This should not be that much of a surprise considering the most optimistic of predictions had the Knicks at 41-41 and the early schedule has featured several good teams.

The WoW wins produced statistic has the Knicks producing 3.5 wins, so the team is roughly in line with where the should be at this point. The Knicks right now are at a crossroads with where the are going. You have players like Amare Stoudemire producing -.1 wins for the season, that surely won't continue as he definitely will be a productful player. On the other end of the spectrum, Wilson Chandler and Toney Douglas had torrid starts that have come back down and Ronny Turiaf will surely see his production decline.

A good coaching decision was made in putting Mozgov on the bench, you CANNOT be a center in this league and not get any rebounds. So here the Knicks sit at 3-5, and I don't know whether or not to be encouraged or discouraged.

2010 Knicks leaders in wins produced:

Landry Fields: 1.2 Wins
Raymond Felton: 1.1 Wins
Danilo Gallinari: .5 Wins
Ronny Turiaf: .5 Wins
Toney Douglas: .5 Wins
Wilson Chandler: .4 Wins
Anthony Randolph: .1 Wins
Roger Mason: 0 wins
Cliff Robinson in an Amare Stoudemire mask: -.1 Wins
Andy Rautins: -.1 Wins
Bill Walker: -.1 Wins
Timofey Mozgov: -.5 Wins

Thursday, November 4, 2010

How Bad Was Amare Stoudemire?

Let's look at his WS48 (Win Score per 48 minutes). Here is a summary on how to calculate win score

With that said...

14 pts. + 8 rebs. + 1 stl. + (1/2)*3 ast. + (1/2)*2 blk. - 21 fga. - 8 to. - (1/2)*5 fta - (1/2)*6 fouls. (37 minutes) = multiplying factor of 1.3 to calculate on a per 48 minute basis

Win score = -9
Win score 48 = -11.7

Average Power Forward WS48= +10.3 least he is an electrifying talent though!

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Knicks cancelled

Abestos? Really?

After 3 games, Amare Stoudemire has been the worst Knick. The 100 million dollar man has produced -.3 wins and has a WP48 of -.118. Will that continue? No. Does it bother me? Yes. At this pace Amare will produce -8.4 wins while getting paid 20 million a year for it.

Landry Fields has done a wonderful job as a rookie posting a WP48 of .419 in his first 3 career games. The Wages of Wins network has projected Fields to produce at a .212 WP48 (average of .100) in his rookie year. Not too bad for a guy who all the scouts had as a decent player in the for the Greek Olympicos squad.

Top 10 worst seasons ever since 2001:
#1 2011 Amare Stoudemire -8.4 wins
#2 Cliff Robinson -8.1 Wins
#3 John Amechi -6.9 Wins
#4 Adam Morrison -6.6 Wins
#5 Jason Collins -6.0 Wins
#6 Andrea Bargnani -6.0 Wins
#7 Cliff Robinson (2) -4.9 Wins
#8 Malik Allen -4.6 Wins
#9 Willie Gren -4.6 Wins
#10 Vin Baker -4.5 Wins

The most amazing thing is that Clifford Robinson appears on this list twice. Here is the seasons that Cliff had...

2001 Phoenix WoW wins (46.5) Cliff Robinson Wins (-4.9)
2002 Detroit WoW wins (46.3) Cliff Robinson Wins (-3.3)
2003 Detroit WoW wins (51.0) Cliff Robinson Wins (-4.2)
2004 Golden State WoW wins (38.8) Cliff Robinson Wins (-8.1)
2005 Golden State WoW wins (35.2) Cliff Robinson Wins (-2.6)
2006 New Jersey WoW wins (44.4) Cliff Robinson Wins (-2.5)
2007 New Jersey WoW wins (39.1) Cliff Robinson Wins (-3.4)

Over the course of 7 seasons the teams that he was on accumulated 301.3 Wins Produced using the formula used in the Wages of Wins. Cliff Robinson during those 301.3 cost his team 26.4 wins. How does a player stay in the league for those 7 seasons being that bad. The better question is how does a player that awful get enough minutes to play to accumulate those hideous numbers. This wasn't a coach having a love affair with a player situation...he played with 4 teams over that stretch and got big minutes from every coach. Sometimes you just need to shake your head.