Friday, October 29, 2010

Game 2

New York Knicks (1-0)
Boston Celtics (1-1)

The Celtics beat the Miami Heat in the opener and since the Heat are obviously a better team than the Knicks, New York has no chance at winning this game. Actually it might be a good idea to get halloween started early.

Amare was less than stellar in his Knick debut commiting 9 turnovers. That guy out in the Bay Area now who really just put up his numbers in garbage time had a max turnover game of 5.

Wilson Chandler paying the power forward position for long stretches in the opener is eventually going to hurt the Knicks. He doesn't possess enough rebounding ability to get boards over taller players and despite what the announcers say, Wislon Chandler cannot stretch the floor. He simply isn't a good outside shooter.

Knicks win probability -100%

Thursday, October 28, 2010

The Problem with Media People

Well Charley Rosen is up to his usual no analysis season projections. As a general rule, any person who offers his opinion and uses phrases such as "Grit" or "Willpower" will offer nothing in the way of objective analysis.

Anyway, what irks me about this article is this phrase

MVP: "Even the writers and broadcasters who vote for this award have come to realize that Kobe does what LeBron wants to do. In any event, votes will be split between LBJ and D-Wade."

If you actually think Kobe is going to be the MVP of league...fine. I disagree with you, but that is your own opinion. Why is it that whenever LeBron is involved people always want to talk Kobe? In the season opener LeBron made a brilliant move to the basket and put the ball in and Steve Kerr chimed in with something like, "A great move by LeBron...I think probably only Kobe Bryant is the other player in the league that could do that." Kobe has absolutely nothing to do with LeBron James at all.

Furthermore, whenever Kobe Bryant does something nobody ever mentions LeBron. Why is that? If Kobe had done the exact same move do you think Kerr would have said, "Wow, a great play by Kobe. I think LeBron could do that too, though."

Back to Charley Rosen, I would really like to ask him what he means by "Kobe does what LeBron wants to do." As I talked about earlier in one of my posts, Kobe does nothing, NOTHING better than LeBron...except have better teammates. That is why last year Kobe had a WP48 of .179 and LeBron's was .429 (average of .100).

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Game 1

New York Knicks (+2) at
Toronto Raptors

Getting off to a good start in the NBA is crucial. If the Knicks win this game they will be on pace to set the best record of all time. If the lose, then it will be a long season. Therefore, this is the most important game of all time.

I'm interested to see who rebounds the ball for the Knicks because Amare isn't that great of a rebounder and in the pre-season Anthony Randolph and Ronny Turiaf didn't rebound particularly well either. I'm starting to miss David Lee already...

Monday, October 18, 2010

New Season - New Hopes

Although I personally believe every year the Knicks have a chance to win, this year I truly do believe it. I can say gleefully that my gut reaction is that the Knicks can go .500 this year! That is truly a major step for a franchise that has done nothing right for the last 10 years. But what can we really expect from this team? To answer this question we can turn to WP48 and Wins Produced to forecast where the Knicks will finish this year. To do this forecasting I am utilizing a weighting system of 3-4-5 corresponding to the most recent year of performance outward to the last 3 years. It is not a perfect system due to injuries, coaching decisions about minutes, but still it should give a fairly good estimate of what to expect. For all rookies I am assigning 500 minutes and a WP48 of .050. This will again not be entirely accurate but will not alter the team total by that much. For this forecast I removed Eddy Curry's 2008 season of 1530 minutes because there is no way Eddy Curry plays more than 100 minutes this year or else I am becoming a Nets fan.

2011 Knicks Forecast

Using the weighted averages the Knicks look to win 27 games. Using last years performances the Knicks figure to win 30 games. Although as a caveat to those numbers, I thank Arturo greatly for his Wins Produced numbers, but I do not think Wilson Chandler is primarily a power forward but rather he is more often a shooting guard. The Knicks acquired players in the David Lee deal who were all injured last year and none of them played more than 1000 minutes.
Getting those guys healthy is of major importance to this team because I do not want to see Eddy Curry on the floor at all.

With all that, for 2011 I expect to see more minutes than forecasted from Gallo, Azuibuike, and Anthony Randoplh. Due to the positional difference with Wilson Chandler, I would say that the forecasted numbers are a bit low.

Final Prediction:


Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Who would you take 1 on 1?

Such is the questioned posed by Rick Reilly in a fictional battle between LeBron James and Kobe Bryant.

The consensus among the "experts" is that in a game with a referee calling fouls Kobe would win. In a game with no fouls, LeBron would take it down. I'm not exactly sure why having a ref would matter, for the most part every pick-up game I have ever played - not having a referee has no bearing on the game at all. Furthermore, Kobe has averaged my personal fouls per game than LeBron has (2.66 vs. 1.95) I do not understand why anyone would want Kobe Bryant instead of LeBron James in anything whether it be 1 on 1, a team game, the bottom line is LeBron is just a better player than Kobe.

Without getting into Win Score, WP48, or Wins Produced (which all favor LeBron)
Since the question is asked right now who would you take, here are the 2010 stats for the contestants:

Points 29.7
Assists: 8.6- although this would not matter in 1 on 1
Rebounds: 7.3
Steals: 1.64
Blocks: 1.01
Turnovers: 3.53
Fouls (if there was a ref): 1.53
FG %: .503

Points: 27.0
Assists: 5.0
Rebounds: 5.4
Steals: 1.55
Blocks: .27
Turnovers: 3.19
Fouls: 2.56
FG%: .456

Essentially what we are seeing is that LeBron does everything better except he does turn the ball over slightly more. This difference would largely be overcome by the fact that LeBron would make more shots, score more points, steal the ball more, block more shots, and get more rebounds.

On the other hand, I'm sure someone like Mark Jackson or Skip Bayless would argue that Kobe has more heart than LeBron, or he is a closer, or that he has the killer instinct that LeBron doesn't possess.

Seriously, in a one on one game this would not even be close. ESPN did this awhile ago when comparing Jeter to A-Rod. I forget the exact quote but Buster Olney said, "A-Rod would have the better jump-shot, better dribble, better defense, and have better overall skills, but Jeter would win 75% of the time." What is it with sportspeople and wanting to tear down the number 1 guys in the sport (Peyton Manning, LeBron James, A-Rod) and then prop up some other really good guy who isn't as good as the other guy on the basis of them being clutch, or just being a winner? (Tom Brady, Kobe Bryant, Derek Jeter)

Friday, October 8, 2010

David Berri's underrated list of Big Men

at #3- David Lee...and Berri had this to say.

  • Years in top 10 Big Men: 07-10
  • Minutes Played: 9930
  • Wins Produced: 60.5
  • WP48: 0.292
  • David Lee I’m so glad you left the terrible franchise that is the Knicks. Hopefully new ownership and a new coach will make people notice how great you actually are in Golden State. It’s still a travesty that Walsh let you go, but their loss is the Warriors gain.

  • ....Hey Dave, this is the Knicks....what did you expect? A good move?