Sunday, August 29, 2010

Does Charley Rosen Watch basketball?

Charley Rosen released his most overrated players and coach a few days ago. I wonder how he got to this list of players, because some of the names, Chris Paul and LeBron James are considered in basketball circles and in statistical communities to be top notch players. Did he just pick these two guys for shock value? I don't know. Here is his list of overrated players:

Point guard: Chris Paul, Jason Kidd

Jason Kidd was the 3rd most valuable player in the league last season when it comes to producing wins for his team. Which is also no fluke considering he has been in the top 6 most valuable 4 of the last 5 years. Chris Paul was the most valuable player in 2008 and 2009 and if it were not for an injury this year was a good bet to be right at the top of the list again in 2010. I really have nothing to say here for Charley, his selections of point guards on his overrated list is dreadful.

Shooting Guard: Joe Johnson, Vince Carter

Yes, The Wages of Wins has detailed how Joe Johnson got vastly overpaid and he is "overrated", he is not a bad player, but was completely undeserving of max-contract status.
I like what Charley says about Vince Carter,

"Vince Carter (Magic) is one of the most highly skilled players extant. But he can be rendered relatively impotent when forced left, and his own lack of heart routinely makes him prone to all kinds of miscues in the clutch."

That analysis just speaks for itself, imagine if Rosen would ever look at Carter per minute performance in "clutch situations" and see that Carter performs equal in those minutes as he does in garbage time.

Small Forward: Lebron James

Where does one even come up with the stance? Skip Bayless school of analysis? LeBron was the most valuable player in the league in 2010 and number 2 in 2009, while posting WP48s of .400+ in 2 consecutive years...very rarified air. But hey, I hear LeBron isn't a closer, so maybe Rosen is right.

Power Forward: Chris Boozer

Analysis from Rosen, "Fills the stat column with late-game jumpers, but good teams neutralize him when the game is on the line." Apparently Boozer is the Alex Rodriguez of the NBA in that he scores all his points when the game is over. Boozer posted a .290 WP48 last year, good for 1st amongst power forwards.

Center: Dwight Howard

Again, another assinine pick to the overrated team by Charley. Dwight was the 2nd most valuable player in the league in 2010, #3 in 2009, #2 in 2008, #5 in 2007. Yes, that certainly is the mark of an overrated player right there. Maybe if Dwight Howard would develop an outside shot he would enhance his game and then really become an elite player! Oh wait....

It is obvious that Charley Rosen does not evaluate players correctly, it is quite possible that the players on his overrated list, will in fact make up the top 5 of MOST VALUABLE players in 2011. Charley is so pre-occupied on clutch performance that it clouds his vision of evaluation. Really, any person who ever mentions clutch situations in an evaluation of a player is just plain wrong. It is fairly common knowledge that a player will not perform differently in a clutch situation than any other ones.

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Carmelo to NY?

It appears more and more likely that Carmelo Anthony is leaning towards signing with the Knicks via free agency next season, or will force a trade to New York this season. David Haverstoh has his take on Carmelo Anthony here

The premise of his article is correct that Anthony is not the player he is touted to be. The value added by his 28.3 ppg average is more than given back by the inefficency in the way Anthony scores. Points aren't all that contributes to a player's value, all components including rebounds, steals, assists, and others are needed to calculate the amount of wins a player contributes to the team.

My dad says you need to factor in that Carmelo Anthony can "get his shot off"
Interesting is that in games where Carmelo doesn't play, his teammates take more shots than normal. There is no evidence that a player can "get his shot".

What do we expect from Carmelo in 2011? To calculate lets look at WP48 for the last 3 seasons along with the minutes he has played. The following weights are applied (2008*3+2009*4+2010*5)

2008: WP48- .131 Minutes- 2806
2009: WP48- .100 Mniutes- 2277
2010: WP48- .108 Minutes- 2634

2011: WP48- .111 Minutes- 2558 Wins: 5.9

Much is being made about how well the Amar'e-Melo tandem would do. The indication is that the duo would STILL not be enough to lift the Knicks into contention (for a playoff series win).

Any trade the Knicks make, a combo of Gallo, Chandler, or Anthony Randolph would make the Knicks a lesser team. If he goes to the Knicks on a max contract, there is no chance his win production per million will be a benefit to the Knicks. Again, it appears as though the Knicks are on the wrong side of a rumor.