Thursday, July 29, 2010

Rudy Fernandez to NYK?

Portland and SG Rudy Fernandez are looking to mutually part ways before the upcoming season. The Knicks are rumored to be in the mix for his services. The only problem is, via ESPN, Portland is looking for a first round pick for Rudy.

The Knicks cannot offer a first round pick because the NBA does not allow trading first round picks in consecutive years. The Knicks traded 2011 to the Jazz and 2012 to the Rockets, which makes trading a 2013 first round pick disallowed.

More importantly, how does Rudy project as a Knick?

He has not played more than 2000 minutes in his years with Portland but has produced an above average WP48 of .157 in 2009 and .131 in 2010.

With that we can expect another above performer with the Knicks, which is a shock to think the Knicks can actually have multiple above average performers on the one time!

Monday, July 19, 2010

Al Harington

Fresh off his albatross of a 34 million dollar deal, Al had this to say about the Knicks coach.

"D'Antoni didn't like me."

Maybe it's because you are not a very productive player, Al?

----Just a thought.

Friday, July 16, 2010

Evaluating the deals so far

I'll admit this post will be more optimistic than the last two. Generally, I am happy with Donnie Walsh has been able to do since missing out in the LeBron sweepstakes.

1) Trade David Lee for Kelena Azubuike, Anthony Randolph, Ronny Turiaf
2) Sign Raymond Felton
3) Sign Timofey Mozgov from Russia

I was ready to jump ship on the Knicks, like the guy down the hall from me here at Qualcomm has done, if the Knicks traded Lee for Monta Ellis. So what does the haul for D-Lee bring?

In Randolph you get a 21 year old who has posted good, but not stellar WP48s in his first two years. Knowing that player performance peaks at 24-25, hopefully Randolph can continue to improve in his tenure with NY.

Azubuike was injured last year, but in 231 minutes did post a WP48 of .231. His previous two seasons he produced at .083 and a .115 clip. I would assume the true talent level lies in between his 2008 and 2009 season.

Turiaf has improved his last 3 seasons and will provide the Knicks with some depth in the front court.

Raymond Felton has gone from a below average player in 2008, an average player in 2009, to a very good player in 2010. Again, I am hopeful that he can repeat his 2010 season, but it is doubtful and once again I would think his true talent level is closer to his .095 WP48 season of 2009.

I have no idea what to expect from the Russia player, other than scouts say he is the real deal. Hopefully he didn't sleep under Darko Milicic posters when he went to bed.

The summation is that the 2010 Knicks had a star player in David Lee and the rest of the cast was below average.

The Knicks do not have a star player on the 2011 version of this team, (WP48 of .200+) but have assembled a few above average players in Amar'e, Anthony Randolph, and hopefully Felton and Azubuike can duplicate the last season and bring a meaningful contribution.

If you have any suggestions for what you would like to see on this blog in the way of analysis or topics, don't hesitate to e-mail me:

Monday, July 5, 2010

Just when you think Donnie Walsh can't screw up anymore...

The latest rumblings via ESPN is that the "Basketball Lifer" GM Donnie Walsh and his front office are looking at the possibility of a sign and trade with the Golden State Warriors. The trade? Monta Ellis for David Lee.

When I heard this news I almost fell off my computer chair, and then I checked the date to see if it was April 1. Nope, July 5, and the Knicks are at it again. Before getting into the 2011 forecast for each of the players, why is it that the only team in the league that doesn't want Lee on their team happens to be the Knicks? It just makes no sense to me. The Knicks seem to be evaluating David Lee as if he is a replacement player.

Anyway here are the 2011 forecasts for Monta Ellis and David Lee.

Monta Ellis: 2168 Mins. .048 WP48 2.2 Wins

David Lee: 2788 Mins. .286 WP48 16.6 Wins

Yes, this seems like a very good for the Knicks to make. Lets hand the Golden State Warriors 14.4 Wins. It is just mind-boggling that the Knicks can continually do these things. Do I expect NBA front office personnel to understand Wins Produced, APBRmetrics, or even the PER? No, but I do expect that once...ONCE!! the Knicks would come up on the right side of a trade.

Saturday, July 3, 2010

As the Knicks start off by ruining free agency

After two years of slashing pay roll and getting under the cap, free agency finally arrived on July 1. The Knicks so far have been rewarded with news that it seems that LeBron will not be playing in Madison Square Garden come 2010-2011. Plan B? Well that is where once again the Knicks make a mistake in this horrid decade. Word came out that the Knicks have offered Amar'e Stoudemire 100 million dollars over 5 years to come to Gotham?

The perception is that Stoudemire is a force on the inerior and a freakish athlete. Certainly worth a max contract! WRONG!

In 2010 Amar'e was the 3rd most valuable player on his team in terms of Wins Produced with 8.6 and a WP48 of .146 (average being .100) The player that will no longer be employed by the New York Knicks, David Lee contributed 17.3 wins along with a .275 WP48 to the Knicks cause. So yes, this fits right in with the script of the past ten years, getting rid of star players who will come cheaper and replacing them with mac contract above average players.

Also, in addition the Knicks are rumored to be offering a max contract to the incredible talent Joe Johnson. Again, the Knicks are targeting the third best player on the team and offering a max contract. How did Joe Johnson do last year? A WP48 of .130 and 7.8 wins produced.

To project the Knicks with these two players I will do a three year regression with weights of 3/4/5 to represent the years.

Amar'e Stoudemire: 2500 Mins. .168 WP48 8.7 Wins
Joe Johnson: 3080 Mins. .110 WP48 7.1 Wins

The other players on the Knicks do not figure to do much with Danilo Gallinari and Toney Douglas being below average players in the early part of their careers. Eddy Curry should never appear on a basketball court again. Bill Walker did show some promise with the Knicks in his limited 729 mins. last year, however, posting a .129 WP48.

With the combo of Amar'e and Joe Johnson, if the play at expectation level, the Knicks can expect to accumulate 15.8 wins these two running the show. Or, in other words, the Knicks signed two players to maximum deals and collectively they will give the Knicks less than the player that they are letting walk away in David Lee.

Oh, the joy of being a Knick fan!!