Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Carmelo to NY?

It appears more and more likely that Carmelo Anthony is leaning towards signing with the Knicks via free agency next season, or will force a trade to New York this season. David Haverstoh has his take on Carmelo Anthony here http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/news/story?id=5439653

The premise of his article is correct that Anthony is not the player he is touted to be. The value added by his 28.3 ppg average is more than given back by the inefficency in the way Anthony scores. Points aren't all that contributes to a player's value, all components including rebounds, steals, assists, and others are needed to calculate the amount of wins a player contributes to the team.

My dad says you need to factor in that Carmelo Anthony can "get his shot off"
Interesting is that in games where Carmelo doesn't play, his teammates take more shots than normal. There is no evidence that a player can "get his shot".

What do we expect from Carmelo in 2011? To calculate lets look at WP48 for the last 3 seasons along with the minutes he has played. The following weights are applied (2008*3+2009*4+2010*5)

2008: WP48- .131 Minutes- 2806
2009: WP48- .100 Mniutes- 2277
2010: WP48- .108 Minutes- 2634

2011: WP48- .111 Minutes- 2558 Wins: 5.9

Much is being made about how well the Amar'e-Melo tandem would do. The indication is that the duo would STILL not be enough to lift the Knicks into contention (for a playoff series win).

Any trade the Knicks make, a combo of Gallo, Chandler, or Anthony Randolph would make the Knicks a lesser team. If he goes to the Knicks on a max contract, there is no chance his win production per million will be a benefit to the Knicks. Again, it appears as though the Knicks are on the wrong side of a rumor.


  1. Carmelo's improved efficiency while playing with team USA as noted here http://dberri.wordpress.com/2006/08/26/thoughts-on-team-usa-after-the-preliminaries/ might indicate that he is being asked to do too much in Denver. In Mike D'antoni's system his catches would be in consistent spots giving him a habitual reads, also Mike loves to fast break to corner 3 point shots which are at the "short" international range. If the basketball metrics community would like to have the same impact on our sport that the baseball metrics community has had on thiers, they must take the noble example of Bill James and be humble before that witch our present level of statistical tracking does not capture.

  2. Shareef-

    there is a major issue with sample size when it comes to D'antoni and Carmelo. I'm sure you could find a random sampling of Carmelo games with Denver that were equal to him playing for D'antoni.

    Also because the 3 point line is closer in Int'l play, Carmelo recieved a boost in production from shooting from closer range, because he is not a very good 3 point shooter.

    The numbers are the best estimate as to what Carmelo will do for the Knicks. It isn't gospel, they are just a forecast, as a Knick fan I hope you are correct and I am wrong, although I am very skeptical.

  3. Shareef,
    Flip a coin a hundred times. Now I may tell you "Hey it's an average coin there were 51 heads and 49 tails". You may reply "but look there's a streak of four heads right there! I think it's rigged" The truth is this is expected to happen. Similarly pointing at short stints in Melo's career to prove he is "better" than his average may not be the right thinking.

    I fear for New York. If they get trigger happy and grab Melo, Amare and Parker this season it may only be slightly better than Isiah's time. Especially as Gallinari is about as good as Melo and Amare is worse than Lee.

  4. No matter who the Knicks give up via trade to get Melo, or if they sign him in free agency, it will not be a good deal.

    I was OK with trading Lee because the haul was a few above average players for a star.

    You're right though Nerdnumbers...a team of Amar'e, Melo, and Parker may bring excitement to the Garden, but it won't bring a contender.

  5. Melo is like a lesser Kobe minus the defensive instincts. I think people put up with bryant's lack of efficiency due to his all world defense and reputation as clutch, but Carmelo can't trade on clutchness (eventhough he has better clutch stats than Kobe) and his defense is the worst.